The 2017 second quarter numbers are in, and yes, life is still great in Valmonte. For many of you reading this, I assume you currently live in Valmonte, and like I hear from many neighbors, you plan on leaving feet first or “in a pine box” as one neighbor so eloquently put it. So what I’m about to tell you about house prices probably doesn’t really matter that much. For the rest of you that are thinking of selling a home or looking to buy one in Valmonte, you may want to keep reading.
For the last 5 years, the median home price in Valmonte has climbed from a low of $950,000 to a high of $1,500,000 ( based on a 12 month weighted average to account for seasonality and anomalies). During that time inventory has hovered around 2 1/2 months supply, with a few exceptions around the Holidays in 2014 (which in hindsight was a great window of opportunity to buy). But things have changed in the last 3 months. Inventory has increased to 13 active listings, or 4.6 months supply – this is the largest number of homes on the market relative to the number of sales we’ve seen in 2 1/2 years.
- Closed sales are up – 26 homes sold in the first half of 2017, compared to 20 in the first half of 2016
- Homes are selling faster –45 Days on Market has declined from in Q2 2016 to 41 days in Q2 2017
- Supply has more than doubled – 1.9 months supply in June 2016 to 4.6 in June 2017
- Prices are flat – median prices in June 2016 were $1,497,500 compared to $1,500,000 in June 2017
When you look at the highlights, it’s easy to be confused. Homes are selling faster yet things are slowing down? Let me explain. We started the year off hot out of the gates – to be specific, 11 homes have sold over the list price so far this year. But as prices continue to bounce off record highs, buyers have become more discretionary, and have less patience for high prices. Add to the mix a homeowner who sees his neighbor’s house sell for $2 million, and then he thinks he can get $2.2 million for his. Only it doesn’t sell. And in this market, when you overprice, you’ll likely get slaughtered.
“Buyers have access to more information than ever before.”
Buyers have access to more information than ever before. Most of you reading this have probably been on Zillow or Realtor.com and have seen what’s for sale and what’s sold around your house. Zillow will even give a “Zestimate” home price and compare it to the advertised price. Now I’m not a big fan of Zestimates – most of the time the pricing is way off if the house hasn’t sold in the last few years, but that type of information is powerful. Armed with information, the average buyer can spot an overpriced home. Toss in our obsession with home improvement shows and “Million Dollar Listing,” and the buyer feels like they have more power than ever before. Without naming specific homes, you can see exactly what I’m talking about just by looking at the current listings. If your home is on the market for more than 90 days in this economy, you’ve definitely missed the mark. In fact, overpriced homes sitting on the market more than 60 days are likely to sell for less than the fair market price.
I’ve pulled a few charts to give you an idea of prices and inventory, as well as a list of all the Valmonte sales so far in 2017.
Median Home Prices
Month’s Supply of Homes
First Half 2017 Valmonte Sales
|Address||Sales Price||Original List Price||Price/ foot||Bed||Bath||Sq feet||Lot Size||DOM||Date Sold|
|3700 Palos Verdes Drive N||$1,070,000||$1,175,000||$587||3||2||1822||7630||4||2017-02-28|
|4013 Via Nivel||$1,160,000||$1,158,750||$918||2||2||1263||7908||9||2017-02-09|
|4240 Via Alondra||$1,200,000||$1,249,000||$478||4||2||2513||7295||222||2017-03-08|
|4028 Via Pima||$1,283,000||$1,200,000||$911||3||2||1408||8886||10||2017-04-27|
|4115 Via Nivel||$1,325,000||$1,299,000||$657||3||2||2017||9112||42||2017-03-09|
|2716 Via Anita||$1,325,000||$1,395,000||$544||4||3||2436||7116||35||2017-02-03|
|4041 Via Pima||$1,334,041||$1,299,000||$736||3||2||1812||7110||2||2017-05-05|
|3001 Palos Verdes||$1,400,000||$1,425,000||$715||4||3||1957||8048||109||2017-05-26|
|4132 Via Solano||$1,449,000||$1,449,000||$838||3||3||1730||7773||54||2017-06-23|
|4049 Via Pavion||$1,470,173||$1,399,000||$896||3||2||1640||10946||7||2017-03-24|
|3705 Via La Selva||$1,476,000||$1,490,000||$609||4||3||2423||6358||42||2017-03-30|
|3828 Via Palomino||$1,485,000||$1,200,000||$845||3||2||1758||10214||14||2017-05-26|
|3213 Paseo Del Campo||$1,508,500||$1,335,000||$688||3||2||2193||14727||9||2017-02-17|
|2545 Via Anita||$1,520,000||$1,519,000||$759||4||2||2002||7080||46||2017-02-22|
|3325 Palos Verdes||$1,531,000||$1,549,000||$695||3||3||2203||8633||0||2017-01-18|
|4424 Via Pavion||$1,555,000||$1,495,000||$483||5||4||3221||10008||10||2017-03-30|
|2724 Via Anita||$1,775,000||$1,849,000||$540||6||4||3287||7133||28||2017-03-31|
|3321 Via La Selva||$2,050,000||$2,050,000||$756||4||3||2712||6893||4||2017-05-02|
|3232 Via La Selva||$2,200,000||$2,195,000||$810||4||4||2716||6246||1||2017-04-21|
|300 Via Navajo||$2,370,000||$2,500,000||$582||5||5||4071||7113||67||2017-03-28|
|3806 Via Palomino||$2,440,000||$2,489,000||$723||4||4||3377||11898||5||2017-06-06|
|3617 Via Palomino||$2,770,000||$2,799,000||$739||4||4||3747||10452||19||2017-04-28|
|3425 Via Palomino||$2,775,000||$2,799,000||$890||4||3||3118||13761||7||2017-06-06|
|3609 Navajo Place||$2,800,000||$2,895,000||$973||5||3||2878||23248||260||2017-04-12|
So what’s the rest of 2017 going to look like? With inventory up and sales slowing across the entire South Bay and PV, the second half is likely to start off on the slow side. If the previously mentioned 2014 holiday season is any indicator, we may have a great buying opportunity starting in late summer as inventory languishes and sellers are faced with price cuts. Interest rates remain in the high 3% to low 4% range so patient buyers may be able to cherry pick some decent buys unless things heat up quickly. Although in a market like Valmonte, sellers may be more discretionary that other areas, so they could end up just pulling their home off the market instead of facing a lower sales price. And even with some of the indicators suggesting that things are leveling off, well priced homes, especially if they are newly updated or offers something unique, will still likely see plenty of interest.
In short, if you are a seller in this market, spend the time to get your house ready to sell and price it right. If you are a buyer, get your financing together and write some offers, you’ll never get a deal standing on the sidelines.
See you in the neighborhood!