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Days on Market

Real Estate Market

Mid-Summer Musings on Valmonte Real Estate

July 26, 2017
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Market climate – Valmonte

  • There are currently 16 homes on the market, approximately double the amount year-over-year, and near the highest level in the current market cycle
  • The absorption rate is 4.7 months, and nearing the peak of 6.4 months supply in October 2014  
  • Prices on a square foot basis are near record highs ($734/ft)
  • Days on Market for the last quarter are at record lows (41 days)
  • On an annual basis, median sales prices have leveled off in Valmonte ($1.5m)  
  • Homes in Valmonte are selling generally within 1% of the list price

Lot’s of inventory, price drops on the way?

After 5 years of appreciation, the market is showing signs of leveling as the market transitions from a seller’s market to a buyer’s market.  The increasing supply is indicative of a “me too” selling climate where sellers are trying to take advantage of higher prices while the good times are around.  If the inventory levels hold, I expect prices to decline slightly into the Fall and Winter months when buyer activity tends to dip.  On the buyer front, interest rates remain stable around 4%, but the consensus is that rates will rise slightly over the next 6-18 months.

How does Valmonte compare to the rest of PVE?

Valmonte is a micro market compared to the larger Palos Verdes Estates market and for the most part, the trends lines parallel one another across the board.  The exception is prices on a per foot basis tend to be higher in Valmonte  than that of the entire city, due mostly to the smaller homes and generally tighter supply.

 

Real Estate Market, Valmonte Homes

Inventory Is Up, Price Growth Is Stalling, but Demand Remains

July 7, 2017
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The 2017 second quarter numbers are in, and yes, life is still great in Valmonte.  For many of you reading this, I assume you currently live in Valmonte, and like I hear from many neighbors, you plan on leaving feet first or “in a pine box” as one neighbor so eloquently put it.  So what I’m about to tell you about house prices probably doesn’t really matter that much.  For the rest of you that are thinking of selling a home or looking to buy one in Valmonte, you may want to keep reading.

For the last 5 years, the median home price in Valmonte has climbed from a low of $950,000 to a high of $1,500,000 ( based on a 12 month weighted average to account for seasonality and anomalies). During that time inventory has hovered around 2 1/2 months supply, with a few exceptions around the Holidays in 2014 (which in hindsight was a great window of opportunity to buy).  But things have changed in the last 3 months.  Inventory has increased to 13 active listings, or 4.6 months supply – this is the largest number of homes on the market relative to the number of sales we’ve seen in 2 1/2 years.

Market Highlights

  • Closed sales are up – 26 homes sold in the first half of 2017, compared to 20 in the first half of 2016
  • Homes are selling faster –45 Days on Market has declined from in Q2 2016 to 41 days in Q2 2017
  • Supply has more than doubled – 1.9 months supply in June 2016 to 4.6 in June 2017
  • Prices are flat – median prices in June 2016 were $1,497,500 compared to $1,500,000 in June 2017

When you look at the highlights, it’s easy to be confused.  Homes are selling faster yet things are slowing down?  Let me explain.  We started the year off hot out of the gates – to be specific, 11 homes have sold over the list price so far this year.  But as prices continue to bounce off record highs, buyers have become more discretionary, and have less patience for high prices.  Add to the mix a homeowner who sees his neighbor’s house sell for $2 million, and then he thinks he can get $2.2 million for his.  Only it doesn’t sell.  And in this market, when you overprice, you’ll likely get slaughtered.

“Buyers have access to more information than ever before.”

Buyers have access to more information than ever before.  Most of you reading this have probably been on Zillow or Realtor.com and have seen what’s for sale and what’s sold around your house.  Zillow will even give a “Zestimate” home price and compare it to the advertised price.  Now I’m not a big fan of Zestimates – most of the time the pricing is way off if the house hasn’t sold in the last few years, but that type of information is powerful.  Armed with information, the average buyer can spot an overpriced home.  Toss in our obsession with home improvement shows and “Million Dollar Listing,” and the buyer feels like they have more power than ever before.  Without naming specific homes, you can see exactly what I’m talking about just by looking at the current listings.  If your home is on the market for more than 90 days in this economy, you’ve definitely missed the mark.  In fact, overpriced homes sitting on the market more than 60 days are likely to sell for less than the fair market price.

I’ve pulled a few charts to give you an idea of prices and inventory, as well as a list of all the Valmonte sales so far in 2017.

Median Home Prices

Month’s Supply of Homes

First Half 2017 Valmonte Sales

Address Sales Price Original List Price Price/ foot Bed Bath Sq feet Lot Size DOM Date Sold
3700 Palos Verdes Drive N $1,070,000 $1,175,000 $587 3 2 1822 7630 4 2017-02-28
4013 Via Nivel $1,160,000 $1,158,750 $918 2 2 1263 7908 9 2017-02-09
4240 Via Alondra $1,200,000 $1,249,000 $478 4 2 2513 7295 222 2017-03-08
4028 Via Pima $1,283,000 $1,200,000 $911 3 2 1408 8886 10 2017-04-27
4400 Lucera $1,300,000 $1,349,000 $687 3 3 1893 10525 133 2017-03-03
4115 Via Nivel $1,325,000 $1,299,000 $657 3 2 2017 9112 42 2017-03-09
2716 Via Anita $1,325,000 $1,395,000 $544 4 3 2436 7116 35 2017-02-03
4041 Via Pima $1,334,041 $1,299,000 $736 3 2 1812 7110 2 2017-05-05
3001 Palos Verdes $1,400,000 $1,425,000 $715 4 3 1957 8048 109 2017-05-26
4132 Via Solano $1,449,000 $1,449,000 $838 3 3 1730 7773 54 2017-06-23
4049 Via Pavion $1,470,173 $1,399,000 $896 3 2 1640 10946 7 2017-03-24
3705 Via La Selva $1,476,000 $1,490,000 $609 4 3 2423 6358 42 2017-03-30
3828 Via Palomino $1,485,000 $1,200,000 $845 3 2 1758 10214 14 2017-05-26
3213 Paseo Del Campo $1,508,500 $1,335,000 $688 3 2 2193 14727 9 2017-02-17
2545 Via Anita $1,520,000 $1,519,000 $759 4 2 2002 7080 46 2017-02-22
3325 Palos Verdes $1,531,000 $1,549,000 $695 3 3 2203 8633 0 2017-01-18
4424 Via Pavion $1,555,000 $1,495,000 $483 5 4 3221 10008 10 2017-03-30
2724 Via Anita $1,775,000 $1,849,000 $540 6 4 3287 7133 28 2017-03-31
3005Palos Verdes $1,900,000 $1,799,000 $631 3 3 3012 8141 9 2017-05-17
3321 Via La Selva $2,050,000 $2,050,000 $756 4 3 2712 6893 4 2017-05-02
3232 Via La Selva $2,200,000 $2,195,000 $810 4 4 2716 6246 1 2017-04-21
300 Via Navajo $2,370,000 $2,500,000 $582 5 5 4071 7113 67 2017-03-28
3806 Via Palomino $2,440,000 $2,489,000 $723 4 4 3377 11898 5 2017-06-06
3617 Via Palomino $2,770,000 $2,799,000 $739 4 4 3747 10452 19 2017-04-28
3425 Via Palomino $2,775,000 $2,799,000 $890 4 3 3118 13761 7 2017-06-06
3609 Navajo Place $2,800,000 $2,895,000 $973 5 3 2878 23248 260 2017-04-12
Averages $1,710,451 $1,706,183 $719 4 3 2,431 9,394 44

So what’s the rest of 2017 going to look like? With inventory up and sales slowing across the entire South Bay and PV, the second half is likely to start off on the slow side.  If the previously mentioned 2014 holiday season is any indicator, we may have a great buying opportunity starting in late summer as inventory languishes and sellers are faced with price cuts.  Interest rates remain in the high 3% to low 4% range so patient buyers may be able to cherry pick some decent buys unless things heat up quickly.  Although in a market like Valmonte, sellers may be more discretionary that other areas, so they could end up just pulling their home off the market instead of facing a lower sales price.  And even with some of the indicators suggesting that things are leveling off, well priced homes, especially if they are newly updated or offers something unique, will still likely see plenty of interest.

In short, if you are a seller in this market, spend the time to get your house ready to sell and price it right.  If you are a buyer, get your financing together and write some offers, you’ll never get a deal standing on the sidelines.

See you in the neighborhood!

Real Estate Market, Valmonte Homes

Mid February Valmonte update: New listing, closed sale, accepted offer, and price drops

February 24, 2016
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4208 Via Valmonte – Asking $1,140,000

We’re over halfway through February and Valmonte is slowly waking from a winter slumber.  This past week one new listing came on the market – 4208 Via Valmonte, a 3 bedroom, 2 bath, in 1625 square feet and priced at $1,140,000 ($702/foot).  This is a well kept house with pleasant low maintenance landscaping. The house sits back from the street and once inside offers a welcoming floorplan.  The house is mostly original so a new buyer would likely want to spend some money on updates, but the house is move-in ready as it stands.  I expect this to sell quickly and at or over the asking price.

Price drops – Of the remaining 5 homes still on the market (and 2 accepting back-up offers), 2 recently saw price drops.  4240 Via Alondra dropped $100k to $1.399m.  This is a nice home with beautiful canyon views and 2,700 square feet.  4256 Via Alondra, an updated home a few doors away dropped to $1,715,000.  This too features a peaceful setting on the canyon and is updated throughout.  Why aren’t these selling?  Homes on Via Alondra, particularly on the canyon side of the street, don’t have backyards.  With the large number of families looking to move to Valmonte, these homes are at a serious disadvantage.  However, the views and price per foot are attractive and I’m sure a buyer will eventually step forward.

Accepted offer – after less than 2 weeks on the market 2544 Via Anita has an accepted offer.  It’s still contingent on inspections, but it shows a nicely updated home with over 2,700′ with 4 bedrooms on a nice lot has wide appeal at $1.795m. Assuming this closes at or near asking, this represents a nice ROI since this house last sold in November 2013 for $1.399.  After selling costs, that’s over a $200k return for a little less than 2 1/2 years.  Not bad!

300 Alcance

300 Via Alcance – Sold $1,609,000

What sold?  300 Via Alcance, after 208 days on the market, finally has a new family.  Originally sold in September of 2014 for $1.1m, the home was thoroughly updated, the master bedroom enlarged, and came back on the market at $1.899m in June 2015.  While the updates were high end, the $1.899m for 2300′ square feet was pushing the upper limits for a 3 bedroom house in Valmonte on an average sized lot.  After lots of patience and several significant price drops, it finally sold for $1.609m last week.

What’s Next?  We should see another cluster of Via la Selva homes close in the next month or so with 3025 PV Drive North and 2544 Via Anita closing soon after.  This should give us enough data to get an idea of how prices are looking, but so far 2016 is looking to be another good year for Valmonte real estate.  Now if we can just get a few more on the market . . . call me!

 Just for fun – It’s interesting to note the unusual groupings of homes on the market.  Currently, there are 3 homes on Via Anita, 2 on Via Alondra, and 1 on Via Valmonte.  (Via la Selva is so long, there always seems to be a couple there).  While mostly circumstantial, I have noticed a common occurrence that homes sell in bunches on the same street in a short period of time.  In late 2014, 6 came on the market on Via Solano.  In 2015, there was only one new listing.  I wonder what street will be the busy one this year?

Valmonte Homes

3rd Quarter Valmonte Real Estate Market Report: Spoiler Alert: Prices Are Reaching New Highs!

October 16, 2015

Is it really fall?  It’s hard to believe amidst 85 degree weather that we’re getting ready for the days to slow down, stocking up on candy for the trick-or-treaters, and thinking about the coming holidays.  But like the weather, the real estate values in Valmonte are headed towards all-time highs.  The average sales price through September 30th is a record $1.546m – up over 14% from 2014.  On top of that, there have already been 45 sales through September 30th this year, compared to 34 homes sold in all of 2014.  Historically speaking, on a price/foot basic, prices have rallied 28% from market lows set in 2012 ($509/foot); however, the average price/foot is off 11% from market highs set in 2005 ($729/foot) and 2006 ($728/foot).

3025 PV Dr North

Ericson Beach Real Estate Listing – 3025 Palos Verdes Drive North

How long does it take for a house to sell?  Average days on market (DOM) for sold homes is trending downward to 42 days for listings sold in the last three months.  This is down from an average of 102 DOM in January.  This decrease in DOM can be attributed to seasonal averages.  However, compared to 2014, the DOM has actually increased.  The longer days on market can be attributed to higher overall prices for the area as well as more available inventory.  Closing prices compared to asking price have returned to 98% of asking, an indicator that on average, houses are being marketed at fair prices.  Year over year this number has improved from 94%.

What’s ahead? Locally, demand remains steady, and as high prices in the South Bay beach cities continue to price out buyers, Palos Verdes Estates and surrounding areas can expect to see continued buyer interest.  What are the potential challenges? Price growth in the short term may face headwinds with rising mortgage interest rates and a limited number of qualified buyers as prices continue to climb while wages and job growth wane.  The result – we’ll likely see a leveling off in prices until more qualified buyers enter the market.

Valmonte Market Statistics

# of Homes Price Range Ave $/foot Average price
Active listings 10 $1.338m – $2.295m $770/foot $1,714,200
In Escrow 3 $1.475m – $1.699m $620/foot $1,574,333
Sold 45 $799k – $2.625m $656/foot $1,546,067
2014 Sales 34 $865k-$2.299m $656/foot $1,354,569
Uncategorized

2014 Valmonte Home Prices Rise 3% and Where We’re Heading in 2015

February 24, 2015
Sold sign

February 24, 2015, Palos Verdes Estates, CA

Valmonte 2014 Real Estate in Review  

After a gangbusters 2013 where we saw a 21% year-over-year increase in values (based on price/foot), the Valmonte real estate market cooled off a bit in 2014.  Values continued to rise, but at a more modest, and much more sustainable 3.14% year-over-year increase.  While the price increases slowed, the average Days on Market (DOM), an important measure of how long it takes a house to sell, dropped from 67 days in 2013 to 52 days in 2014 (this was the lowest average DOM since 2007).  Looking at another key figure, the asking vs selling price comparison remained tight with houses selling at 97.74% of the asking price in 2014 compared to 98.26% in 2013.  Compare this to 2009 when houses were selling at 93.52% of the asking price – a tough market for sellers.  Finally, another sign of strong seller’s market is the fact that 11 of the 34 houses sold in 2014 sold at or above the asking price – another improvement from 2009 when not one house sold over asking.  This continues suggests that there is fierce competition for well priced, move-in ready homes and sellers have their choice of buyers.

According to the S&P/Case-Shiller CA-Los Angeles Home Price Index, prices were up 5.1% year-over-year in the Los Angeles area in 2014.  This suggests that our local Valmonte market is relatively on par with the general market in the greater Los Angeles area, albeit at a higher priced entry point to move in.  This higher entry price could explain the slightly lower YOY appreciation.

Figure 1a. 3 year Valmonte SFR sales statistics

Year # Houses Sold Average Price Average Price/Foot Year/Year % change Ave. Days on Market
2012 41 $1,213,049 $509.05 -2.73% 132
2013 33 $1,513,765 $616.62 21.13% 67
2014 34 $1,354,569 $635.98 3.14% 52

 

2015 Is Off to a Slower Start

Since the new year, 6 homes have closed at a price per square foot of $607.91 with selling prices between $799k and $2.05m.  The average days on market is 101 days – a considerable uptick from last year’s 52 days (one of these homes was a short sale which skew the numbers to the higher side).  In addition to closed sales, there are 7 homes in back-up and 2 listed as pending.  The majority of these homes were listed in the latter part of 2014, during which home sales are traditionally slower than the peak spring and summer months.

Active Listings

There are currently 7 Valmonte homes for sale as of today priced between $1.475m for a 1742 square foot traditional home on Via Nivel to 3,500 square foot traditional home on a corner lot on PV Drive North in the Eucalyptus grove priced just under $2.2m.  The average list price/foot is $685/foot – a nice bump from last year’s $635/foot – but time will tell if these homes sell close to that price.  Three of these listings have been on the market for 120 days or more, a good indication that they will likely need a considerable price reduction before buyers are ready to move in.  In fact, their respective prices confirm this – all are priced considerably more than the average price per square foot of the other listings.

What’s on the horizon as we head into the traditionally busy selling season?  If you are a seller, you’re in luck.  Demand for Valmonte remains strong with many young families looking to enjoy the peaceful tree lined streets and top rated Palos Verdes Schools.  In addition, financing continues to be favorable to buyers with low rates and banks willing to lend.  If you are a buyer, I would qualify ASAP for a solid loan with a good mortgage banker and be ready to write a strong offer when your dream house is on the market.  And, of course, whether you are a buyer or a seller, I would suggest you call me to help you reach your real estate goals while the market is hot!

For a custom price analysis of your home or for tips on buying or selling a home, please feel free to email directly at kyle@kyledanielsrealestate.com.  You can also visit my website at www.kyledanielsrealestate.com.

Thanks for reading!

About Kyle Daniels

About Kyle Daniels

Husband and Proud Father of Two Beautiful Children Palos Verdes Estates Resident Raised in Hermosa Beach, Lifelong South Bay Resident Six time Catalina Classic 32 mile Paddleboard Race Champion

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