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Neighborhood News, Real Estate Market, Valmonte Homes

Valmonte Halloween Fun and November 2017 Market Update

November 7, 2017

Once again, Halloween in Valmonte did not disappoint! The Halloween tradition is one of the unique things that makes living in Valmonte lots of fun, and it was great to see all the families and kids getting into the spirit again this year. Our kids had a great time, and I know we went through over 500 pieces of candy at our home alone (and I know we were not alone)!


As for real estate, we are entering one of the traditionally slower times of the year. After a sales boost in August, October followed the September cooling trend in Valmonte. Inventory, measured as month’s supply, increased from 3.4 months supply in September to 4.3 months in October. Active listings for the month also reached a 3 year high with 17 homes available during the month. However, supply levels indicate the market still favors the seller as a balanced market is considered 6 months of supply. The increasing supply means that despite the high prices, we are reaching a more balanced market.

As for prices, Valmonte homes are just shy of record highs seen over the last 12 months. However, in the last few weeks with demand waning, prices of homes that have been on the market over 60 days are experiencing reductions. Prices in Valmonte continue to be a driver of activity. Homes priced under $1.5m continue to see the strongest activity and fewest days on the market. As you cross the $2m threshold, the time on the market increases. Of course there are exceptions in both price categories as unique homes or overpriced homes buck the trends. As has been the been case over the last 5 years, activity and prices typically drop as well head into the Holiday season. With 13 homes for sale in the neighborhood, buyers may find that this is the time to find their Valmonte home at a discount to the peak selling season seen in the Spring and early Summer months.

One question that remains to be answered is how long will prices hold both on a local level and throughout the region? We turn once again to interest rates with the belief that any significant rise could result in slowing sales and as a result, dropping prices. Of course, we have wondered for last several years when this interest rate hike will take place. Also, as of last Thursday, factor in the proposed tax plan which could limit mortgage interest and property tax deductions, and prices may cool off slightly. In the meantime, the overall economy keeps showing signs of strength with the unemployment rate at 10 year lows and corporate earnings holding steady. Throughout Southern California, demand still outpaces supply, and even with lower potential real estate tax deductions, and a slight increase in interest rates, it’s a safe bet we’re not heading for a real estate slump anytime soon.

Real Estate Market

Mid-Summer Musings on Valmonte Real Estate

July 26, 2017

Market climate – Valmonte

  • There are currently 16 homes on the market, approximately double the amount year-over-year, and near the highest level in the current market cycle
  • The absorption rate is 4.7 months, and nearing the peak of 6.4 months supply in October 2014  
  • Prices on a square foot basis are near record highs ($734/ft)
  • Days on Market for the last quarter are at record lows (41 days)
  • On an annual basis, median sales prices have leveled off in Valmonte ($1.5m)  
  • Homes in Valmonte are selling generally within 1% of the list price

Lot’s of inventory, price drops on the way?

After 5 years of appreciation, the market is showing signs of leveling as the market transitions from a seller’s market to a buyer’s market.  The increasing supply is indicative of a “me too” selling climate where sellers are trying to take advantage of higher prices while the good times are around.  If the inventory levels hold, I expect prices to decline slightly into the Fall and Winter months when buyer activity tends to dip.  On the buyer front, interest rates remain stable around 4%, but the consensus is that rates will rise slightly over the next 6-18 months.

How does Valmonte compare to the rest of PVE?

Valmonte is a micro market compared to the larger Palos Verdes Estates market and for the most part, the trends lines parallel one another across the board.  The exception is prices on a per foot basis tend to be higher in Valmonte  than that of the entire city, due mostly to the smaller homes and generally tighter supply.


Real Estate Market, Valmonte Homes

Inventory Is Up, Price Growth Is Stalling, but Demand Remains

July 7, 2017

The 2017 second quarter numbers are in, and yes, life is still great in Valmonte.  For many of you reading this, I assume you currently live in Valmonte, and like I hear from many neighbors, you plan on leaving feet first or “in a pine box” as one neighbor so eloquently put it.  So what I’m about to tell you about house prices probably doesn’t really matter that much.  For the rest of you that are thinking of selling a home or looking to buy one in Valmonte, you may want to keep reading.

For the last 5 years, the median home price in Valmonte has climbed from a low of $950,000 to a high of $1,500,000 ( based on a 12 month weighted average to account for seasonality and anomalies). During that time inventory has hovered around 2 1/2 months supply, with a few exceptions around the Holidays in 2014 (which in hindsight was a great window of opportunity to buy).  But things have changed in the last 3 months.  Inventory has increased to 13 active listings, or 4.6 months supply – this is the largest number of homes on the market relative to the number of sales we’ve seen in 2 1/2 years.

Market Highlights

  • Closed sales are up26 homes sold in the first half of 2017, compared to 20 in the first half of 2016
  • Homes are selling faster45 Days on Market has declined from in Q2 2016 to 41 days in Q2 2017
  • Supply has more than doubled1.9 months supply in June 2016 to 4.6 in June 2017
  • Prices are flat – median prices in June 2016 were $1,497,500 compared to $1,500,000 in June 2017

When you look at the highlights, it’s easy to be confused.  Homes are selling faster yet things are slowing down?  Let me explain.  We started the year off hot out of the gates – to be specific, 11 homes have sold over the list price so far this year.  But as prices continue to bounce off record highs, buyers have become more discretionary, and have less patience for high prices.  Add to the mix a homeowner who sees his neighbor’s house sell for $2 million, and then he thinks he can get $2.2 million for his.  Only it doesn’t sell.  And in this market, when you overprice, you’ll likely get slaughtered.

“Buyers have access to more information than ever before.”

Buyers have access to more information than ever before.  Most of you reading this have probably been on Zillow or and have seen what’s for sale and what’s sold around your house.  Zillow will even give a “Zestimate” home price and compare it to the advertised price.  Now I’m not a big fan of Zestimates – most of the time the pricing is way off if the house hasn’t sold in the last few years, but that type of information is powerful.  Armed with information, the average buyer can spot an overpriced home.  Toss in our obsession with home improvement shows and “Million Dollar Listing,” and the buyer feels like they have more power than ever before.  Without naming specific homes, you can see exactly what I’m talking about just by looking at the current listings.  If your home is on the market for more than 90 days in this economy, you’ve definitely missed the mark.  In fact, overpriced homes sitting on the market more than 60 days are likely to sell for less than the fair market price.

I’ve pulled a few charts to give you an idea of prices and inventory, as well as a list of all the Valmonte sales so far in 2017.

Median Home Prices

Month’s Supply of Homes

First Half 2017 Valmonte Sales

Address Sales Price Original List Price Price/ foot Bed Bath Sq feet Lot Size DOM Date Sold
3700 Palos Verdes Drive N $1,070,000 $1,175,000 $587 3 2 1822 7630 4 2017-02-28
4013 Via Nivel $1,160,000 $1,158,750 $918 2 2 1263 7908 9 2017-02-09
4240 Via Alondra $1,200,000 $1,249,000 $478 4 2 2513 7295 222 2017-03-08
4028 Via Pima $1,283,000 $1,200,000 $911 3 2 1408 8886 10 2017-04-27
4400 Lucera $1,300,000 $1,349,000 $687 3 3 1893 10525 133 2017-03-03
4115 Via Nivel $1,325,000 $1,299,000 $657 3 2 2017 9112 42 2017-03-09
2716 Via Anita $1,325,000 $1,395,000 $544 4 3 2436 7116 35 2017-02-03
4041 Via Pima $1,334,041 $1,299,000 $736 3 2 1812 7110 2 2017-05-05
3001 Palos Verdes $1,400,000 $1,425,000 $715 4 3 1957 8048 109 2017-05-26
4132 Via Solano $1,449,000 $1,449,000 $838 3 3 1730 7773 54 2017-06-23
4049 Via Pavion $1,470,173 $1,399,000 $896 3 2 1640 10946 7 2017-03-24
3705 Via La Selva $1,476,000 $1,490,000 $609 4 3 2423 6358 42 2017-03-30
3828 Via Palomino $1,485,000 $1,200,000 $845 3 2 1758 10214 14 2017-05-26
3213 Paseo Del Campo $1,508,500 $1,335,000 $688 3 2 2193 14727 9 2017-02-17
2545 Via Anita $1,520,000 $1,519,000 $759 4 2 2002 7080 46 2017-02-22
3325 Palos Verdes $1,531,000 $1,549,000 $695 3 3 2203 8633 0 2017-01-18
4424 Via Pavion $1,555,000 $1,495,000 $483 5 4 3221 10008 10 2017-03-30
2724 Via Anita $1,775,000 $1,849,000 $540 6 4 3287 7133 28 2017-03-31
3005Palos Verdes $1,900,000 $1,799,000 $631 3 3 3012 8141 9 2017-05-17
3321 Via La Selva $2,050,000 $2,050,000 $756 4 3 2712 6893 4 2017-05-02
3232 Via La Selva $2,200,000 $2,195,000 $810 4 4 2716 6246 1 2017-04-21
300 Via Navajo $2,370,000 $2,500,000 $582 5 5 4071 7113 67 2017-03-28
3806 Via Palomino $2,440,000 $2,489,000 $723 4 4 3377 11898 5 2017-06-06
3617 Via Palomino $2,770,000 $2,799,000 $739 4 4 3747 10452 19 2017-04-28
3425 Via Palomino $2,775,000 $2,799,000 $890 4 3 3118 13761 7 2017-06-06
3609 Navajo Place $2,800,000 $2,895,000 $973 5 3 2878 23248 260 2017-04-12
Averages $1,710,451 $1,706,183 $719 4 3 2,431 9,394 44

So what’s the rest of 2017 going to look like? With inventory up and sales slowing across the entire South Bay and PV, the second half is likely to start off on the slow side.  If the previously mentioned 2014 holiday season is any indicator, we may have a great buying opportunity starting in late summer as inventory languishes and sellers are faced with price cuts.  Interest rates remain in the high 3% to low 4% range so patient buyers may be able to cherry pick some decent buys unless things heat up quickly.  Although in a market like Valmonte, sellers may be more discretionary that other areas, so they could end up just pulling their home off the market instead of facing a lower sales price.  And even with some of the indicators suggesting that things are leveling off, well priced homes, especially if they are newly updated or offers something unique, will still likely see plenty of interest.

In short, if you are a seller in this market, spend the time to get your house ready to sell and price it right.  If you are a buyer, get your financing together and write some offers, you’ll never get a deal standing on the sidelines.

See you in the neighborhood!

Real Estate Market, Valmonte Homes

In Escrow: 4209 Via Pinzon, Plus 2 Insights to Today’s Buyers

September 30, 2016
4209 Via Pinzon - High Res-004

4209 Via Pinzon - High Res-004

After 2 months of solid activity, 4209 Via Pinzon is in escrow.  This is a great home and the buyers are looking forward to joining this great community.

There are 2 things we have learned over the last 60 days between agent feedback and comments during open houses and meeting with potential buyers that merits sharing, especially if you are considering buying or selling a home in the next 6 – 12 months.

  1. The market is still full of buyers, but they have grown more patient in the last several months.  This is evident in the increased time homes are taking to sell – not just in Valmonte, but throughout the South Bay and Palos Verdes.  With over 300 visitors through the house, it is clear that Valmonte is still generating a lot of interest, but buyers know what they want and are willing to wait for the right property at the right price.  4 months ago, there was half the inventory and a general fear that you may have to wait another 6 months to find a home if you don’t act quickly.  That has certainly changed.
  2. After 43% appreciation over the last 4 years, buyers are beginning to ask the question, how much longer can prices go up?  This is a rational and understandable question given homeowner’s memory of the market crash from 2008 through 2012.  My last post covered this topic in greater detail, but it’s worth addressing again.  A recent statement by CAR  Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young addressed the market by saying “I think we’re getting close to the peak of the market, but we haven’t really had a stellar recovery either.” She went on to address the potential for declines by saying “It’s really going to be more of a slow squeeze than a big drop.”  The market fundamentals are still in place for continued price appreciation, but history tells us that growth cycles typically last 4-5 years and we’re already 4 years in.

So what should you make of all this?  I’m advising my clients on the sell side that the window of opportunity to take advantage of equity appreciation is starting to wind down, but as long as interest rates remain low, there will still be plenty of buyers around.  On the buy side, I’m advising clients that if it’s the right house for your needs and it’s in your budget, it’s worth taking action.  And if the house has been on the market more than 90 days, the next few months may be the best time to take advantage of seller frustration and negotiate the price.

If you need help putting a real estate plan together, send me an email and I’ll create a customized plan for your needs.

Until next time…see you in the neighborhood!


Real Estate Market, Valmonte Homes

Prices are up, Inventory is down, but the Summer Selling Season Gives Buyers Hope

May 24, 2016

Let’s face it, if you are a buyer looking to move to Palos Verdes Estates, and you don’t have over $2 million, it’s a tough market out there.  The same goes for buyers in Manhattan Beach, Hermosa Beach, and increasingly Redondo Beach.  As for the beach cities, there are at least several lower priced options including condos and town homes that will get you location, views, and that coveted beach zip code many buyers are looking for (may I recommend 446 Palos Verdes Blvd) But if you don’t want to hear your neighbor’s toilet flush or their phone ring, buyers looking to “the Hill” are facing steep competition at the lower entry points to each neighborhood.

Taken as a whole, inventory is down compared to a year ago throughout the South Bay and Palos Verdes.  On the other hand prices are up over 4% in the general area and over 10% in the most popular neighborhoods.  If you are shopping at the entry point to any neighborhood, the competition is stiff, especially under $1.5m. However, there is an interesting trend recently reported by CoreLogic that we are seeing – rising inventory and fewer sales in the higher price ranges.  To illustrate this, look at Manhattan Beach where list prices are averaging $4.3m.  Compared to a year ago, available inventory (and months supply) has nearly doubled from 61 homes to 115 homes.  On the other hand, the number of closed sales remains steady around 31/month.  In Valmonte, where sold homes averaged $1.67m (3 month rolling average), inventory is down over 40% from a year ago and closed sales are up on a monthly basis.  Hmmnnn, are we starting to see signs of a bubble on the high end?

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2517 Via la Selva in Valmonte – ask $1,999,000, SOLD $2,067,000

Fortunately there is some hope on the horizon for those eager buyers as summer approaches.  In the past Valmonte has averaged around 12-13 available homes during the summer months . This summer bump is true for the beach cities as well.  But as prices climb, the buyer pool tends to shrink and homes sit on the market longer.  As a result, prices drop, typically as we head into the holidays and unsold inventory sits.  Is this what we have in store for our market?  Only time will tell, but for now, my buyers are still looking for that perfect Valmonte home for their family and there isn’t much available for them.


101 Via Colusa – ask $1,250,000; SOLD $1,352,500!

If you are thinking of buying or selling a home, please contact Kyle Daniels, Ericson Beach Real Estate, 310.483.3998 or for a confidential consultation.