Browsing Tag

months supply

Real Estate Market

Mid-Summer Musings on Valmonte Real Estate

July 26, 2017
image1

Market climate – Valmonte

  • There are currently 16 homes on the market, approximately double the amount year-over-year, and near the highest level in the current market cycle
  • The absorption rate is 4.7 months, and nearing the peak of 6.4 months supply in October 2014  
  • Prices on a square foot basis are near record highs ($734/ft)
  • Days on Market for the last quarter are at record lows (41 days)
  • On an annual basis, median sales prices have leveled off in Valmonte ($1.5m)  
  • Homes in Valmonte are selling generally within 1% of the list price

Lot’s of inventory, price drops on the way?

After 5 years of appreciation, the market is showing signs of leveling as the market transitions from a seller’s market to a buyer’s market.  The increasing supply is indicative of a “me too” selling climate where sellers are trying to take advantage of higher prices while the good times are around.  If the inventory levels hold, I expect prices to decline slightly into the Fall and Winter months when buyer activity tends to dip.  On the buyer front, interest rates remain stable around 4%, but the consensus is that rates will rise slightly over the next 6-18 months.

How does Valmonte compare to the rest of PVE?

Valmonte is a micro market compared to the larger Palos Verdes Estates market and for the most part, the trends lines parallel one another across the board.  The exception is prices on a per foot basis tend to be higher in Valmonte  than that of the entire city, due mostly to the smaller homes and generally tighter supply.

 

Real Estate Market, Valmonte Homes

Inventory Is Up, Price Growth Is Stalling, but Demand Remains

July 7, 2017
kd-2016-area-images38

The 2017 second quarter numbers are in, and yes, life is still great in Valmonte.  For many of you reading this, I assume you currently live in Valmonte, and like I hear from many neighbors, you plan on leaving feet first or “in a pine box” as one neighbor so eloquently put it.  So what I’m about to tell you about house prices probably doesn’t really matter that much.  For the rest of you that are thinking of selling a home or looking to buy one in Valmonte, you may want to keep reading.

For the last 5 years, the median home price in Valmonte has climbed from a low of $950,000 to a high of $1,500,000 ( based on a 12 month weighted average to account for seasonality and anomalies). During that time inventory has hovered around 2 1/2 months supply, with a few exceptions around the Holidays in 2014 (which in hindsight was a great window of opportunity to buy).  But things have changed in the last 3 months.  Inventory has increased to 13 active listings, or 4.6 months supply – this is the largest number of homes on the market relative to the number of sales we’ve seen in 2 1/2 years.

Market Highlights

  • Closed sales are up26 homes sold in the first half of 2017, compared to 20 in the first half of 2016
  • Homes are selling faster45 Days on Market has declined from in Q2 2016 to 41 days in Q2 2017
  • Supply has more than doubled1.9 months supply in June 2016 to 4.6 in June 2017
  • Prices are flat – median prices in June 2016 were $1,497,500 compared to $1,500,000 in June 2017

When you look at the highlights, it’s easy to be confused.  Homes are selling faster yet things are slowing down?  Let me explain.  We started the year off hot out of the gates – to be specific, 11 homes have sold over the list price so far this year.  But as prices continue to bounce off record highs, buyers have become more discretionary, and have less patience for high prices.  Add to the mix a homeowner who sees his neighbor’s house sell for $2 million, and then he thinks he can get $2.2 million for his.  Only it doesn’t sell.  And in this market, when you overprice, you’ll likely get slaughtered.

“Buyers have access to more information than ever before.”

Buyers have access to more information than ever before.  Most of you reading this have probably been on Zillow or Realtor.com and have seen what’s for sale and what’s sold around your house.  Zillow will even give a “Zestimate” home price and compare it to the advertised price.  Now I’m not a big fan of Zestimates – most of the time the pricing is way off if the house hasn’t sold in the last few years, but that type of information is powerful.  Armed with information, the average buyer can spot an overpriced home.  Toss in our obsession with home improvement shows and “Million Dollar Listing,” and the buyer feels like they have more power than ever before.  Without naming specific homes, you can see exactly what I’m talking about just by looking at the current listings.  If your home is on the market for more than 90 days in this economy, you’ve definitely missed the mark.  In fact, overpriced homes sitting on the market more than 60 days are likely to sell for less than the fair market price.

I’ve pulled a few charts to give you an idea of prices and inventory, as well as a list of all the Valmonte sales so far in 2017.

Median Home Prices

Month’s Supply of Homes

First Half 2017 Valmonte Sales

Address Sales Price Original List Price Price/ foot Bed Bath Sq feet Lot Size DOM Date Sold
3700 Palos Verdes Drive N $1,070,000 $1,175,000 $587 3 2 1822 7630 4 2017-02-28
4013 Via Nivel $1,160,000 $1,158,750 $918 2 2 1263 7908 9 2017-02-09
4240 Via Alondra $1,200,000 $1,249,000 $478 4 2 2513 7295 222 2017-03-08
4028 Via Pima $1,283,000 $1,200,000 $911 3 2 1408 8886 10 2017-04-27
4400 Lucera $1,300,000 $1,349,000 $687 3 3 1893 10525 133 2017-03-03
4115 Via Nivel $1,325,000 $1,299,000 $657 3 2 2017 9112 42 2017-03-09
2716 Via Anita $1,325,000 $1,395,000 $544 4 3 2436 7116 35 2017-02-03
4041 Via Pima $1,334,041 $1,299,000 $736 3 2 1812 7110 2 2017-05-05
3001 Palos Verdes $1,400,000 $1,425,000 $715 4 3 1957 8048 109 2017-05-26
4132 Via Solano $1,449,000 $1,449,000 $838 3 3 1730 7773 54 2017-06-23
4049 Via Pavion $1,470,173 $1,399,000 $896 3 2 1640 10946 7 2017-03-24
3705 Via La Selva $1,476,000 $1,490,000 $609 4 3 2423 6358 42 2017-03-30
3828 Via Palomino $1,485,000 $1,200,000 $845 3 2 1758 10214 14 2017-05-26
3213 Paseo Del Campo $1,508,500 $1,335,000 $688 3 2 2193 14727 9 2017-02-17
2545 Via Anita $1,520,000 $1,519,000 $759 4 2 2002 7080 46 2017-02-22
3325 Palos Verdes $1,531,000 $1,549,000 $695 3 3 2203 8633 0 2017-01-18
4424 Via Pavion $1,555,000 $1,495,000 $483 5 4 3221 10008 10 2017-03-30
2724 Via Anita $1,775,000 $1,849,000 $540 6 4 3287 7133 28 2017-03-31
3005Palos Verdes $1,900,000 $1,799,000 $631 3 3 3012 8141 9 2017-05-17
3321 Via La Selva $2,050,000 $2,050,000 $756 4 3 2712 6893 4 2017-05-02
3232 Via La Selva $2,200,000 $2,195,000 $810 4 4 2716 6246 1 2017-04-21
300 Via Navajo $2,370,000 $2,500,000 $582 5 5 4071 7113 67 2017-03-28
3806 Via Palomino $2,440,000 $2,489,000 $723 4 4 3377 11898 5 2017-06-06
3617 Via Palomino $2,770,000 $2,799,000 $739 4 4 3747 10452 19 2017-04-28
3425 Via Palomino $2,775,000 $2,799,000 $890 4 3 3118 13761 7 2017-06-06
3609 Navajo Place $2,800,000 $2,895,000 $973 5 3 2878 23248 260 2017-04-12
Averages $1,710,451 $1,706,183 $719 4 3 2,431 9,394 44

So what’s the rest of 2017 going to look like? With inventory up and sales slowing across the entire South Bay and PV, the second half is likely to start off on the slow side.  If the previously mentioned 2014 holiday season is any indicator, we may have a great buying opportunity starting in late summer as inventory languishes and sellers are faced with price cuts.  Interest rates remain in the high 3% to low 4% range so patient buyers may be able to cherry pick some decent buys unless things heat up quickly.  Although in a market like Valmonte, sellers may be more discretionary that other areas, so they could end up just pulling their home off the market instead of facing a lower sales price.  And even with some of the indicators suggesting that things are leveling off, well priced homes, especially if they are newly updated or offers something unique, will still likely see plenty of interest.

In short, if you are a seller in this market, spend the time to get your house ready to sell and price it right.  If you are a buyer, get your financing together and write some offers, you’ll never get a deal standing on the sidelines.

See you in the neighborhood!