Valmonte Real Estate

New Listings are Up, Pending Sales are Down – What does that mean for you?

June 5, 2018

It’s June and the beginning of the “summer selling season” for real estate in Valmonte. Instead of a bunch of flowery talk about how great everything is about the market, I’m going to go out on a limb and dare to be more realistic than perpetually optimistic. The local real estate market is setting up for a price correction. The bigger question, and one I don’t have an immediate answer to, is for how long?

Let me explain. Annualized average sales prices in Valmonte have risen steadily since January of 2015 and are up nearly 50% since March 2010. In that same period, inventory has declined to our current supply levels of approximately 2.5 months supply of homes. (The chart on the following page illustrates this over the last 10 years). At the same time, the sales price compared to original list price is hovering around 99-100% of list, but that’s where the change is about to happen. As the message of tight inventory has been spread around in newsletters like this and other media outlets, sellers have increasingly overpriced their homes. I don’t need to name specific homes, but any recent look at the MLS or Zillow, and you will see what I mean. In the meantime, mortgage rates have risen significantly over the past year and maybe headed to the 5% range for a 30 year mortgage – the highest level in 7 years. Finally, add into the mix a slate of new homes lined up to hit the market in Valmonte, and we are setting the table for what may quickly shift from a sellers market to a buyers market. If not a full blown buyers market, then I do think, at the very least, there will be good buying opportunities in late summer and early fall.

This exact scenario has taken place on several occasions over the last 4 years. After inventory spikes in the summers of 2014, 2016, and 2017, buyers were able to buy homes on average less than 95% of the asking price as the result of a short term supply glut. In all these cases, the market returned to a seller’s market shortly after, but the short term price correction provided excellent buying opportunities for those in the market for a new home. Challenges to this model would be a sudden drop in interest rates, or a bevy of new buyers coming to the market, but both are unlikely given the recent economic growth and already inflated house prices.

What I am suggesting is that, like the stock market recently experienced, it would not be unusual for a short term price correction in local housing prices. I don’t expect all neighborhoods to be affected the same. In areas like Redondo Beach and Torrance, prices are still relatively affordable compared to other beach cities, and inventory is still trending below 2 months supply in these markets. But in higher priced areas like Palos Verdes Estates, Hermosa Beach, and Manhattan Beach, prices are already showing signs of weakening.

In the long run, we’ll still see general price growth for the next two years, as long as there aren’t major shocks to the overall economy. Limited supply is still an issue in most areas throughout Southern California, and until significant building takes place or job growth drastically slows, the market will remain out of balance. To give you further peace of mind, economists at Fannie Mae predict a 4-6% price appreciation in 2018 and 2019, with 30 year mortgage rates hovering in the upper 4% range.

So for now, if you are a seller, you need to be very realistic with your pricing if you hope to sell your home in a reasonable amount of time. If you are a buyer, I don’t know that sitting back and waiting for a crash is a good idea, but instead, be ready to pounce on some good deals when they come around.

Click here if you would like to download a copy of my most recent I Love Valmonte newsletter or email me to receive a complimentary copy sent to your inbox.

See you in the neighborhood, Kyle

Real Estate Market, Valmonte Homes

2018: Valmonte Real Estate Forecast – Are we in a bubble? What about taxes? And Should I Buy or Sell in 2018?

June 5, 2018

Spring greetings from our humble abode here in Valmonte. After a bumpy start in the stock market, I write with the prospects of a great year ahead in both the overall economy, as well as the local real estate market. The Valmonte real estate market is coming off a strong end to 2017, and a robust start to 2018. In fact, in the last 24 months, no home in Valmonte has sold for less than $1,000,000! In the last year, homes sold for 98.3% of the asking price, and 1/3 sold over asking! Across the board we saw the days on market drop, and supply remained around 2 months or lower, especially for homes under $2,000,000. Bottom line: it’s still a seller’s market.

Are we in a Bubble?

The short answer is NO! Prices have risen for 5 straight years, but even in Valmonte, the price per square foot is only 1.4% more than previous highs set in 2007. But this market is different; here’s why….

Relative Affordability – Despite the seemingly high prices, housing affordability is 2 to 3 times higher today than during the last market peak in 2006/07. Adjusted for inflation, the average sales price in Valmonte is still nearly $100k less than the last market peak.
Buyers have skin in the game – The last market peak was supported by no-money down and stated income loans. Not this time; lenders typically require buyers to have 20% down payments.
Low unemployment – Job growth is outpacing new housing starts, and even without new jobs, there is still a lack of supply to meet the demand for housing.
Interest rates are still historically low – In fact, interest rates are 2 to 3 points lower in this market cycle than they were in 2006 and 2007. Keep in mind that buyers are buying a payment more than they are a house.
Renting is expensive – Expensive rents are one of the primary drivers motivating first time homebuyers. Even with the reduction in deductible home ownership expenses in the new tax plan, first time buyers are motivated to buy a home.

What can we expect for 2018?

After a wild run to start the year in the stock market, followed by some crazy volatility, here are our predictions for the coming year.

Interest Rates – Interest rates will continue to rise, but gradually. This is sort of a no-brainer, as it’s been predicted for the last several years. But higher rates are pushing hesitant buyers to get off the fence.
Tax Reform – The effects of the newly passed tax reform won’t stifle home buying and selling as some have warned, but it will likely exert downward pressure on supply. Limited supply will make it more challenging for move-up buyers until baby boomers are ready to cash in on their equity.
Price growth – Consumer confidence is at the highest level in over 17 years, and the consensus from economists is that home prices will increase moderately at around 4% in 2018. We expect higher growth at the entry level homes in the neighborhood while the top end will remain relatively flat – so far in 2018 this is the case.
Support from the Bottom Up – The growth that led us out of the market bottom started on the high end with wealthier neighborhoods seeing massive price growth in 2013 and 2014. While those markets level off, the lower priced neighborhoods will continue to push the market up.
Buy Investment Property – The new tax laws won’t hurt landlords; and in fact, it will likely help them. If rising rates and lower inventory reduces the number of first time buyers, landlords will continue to be able to raise rents. Even with a limited supply of multifamily properties and lower overall returns, owning investment property still remains a solid hedge on inflation and is a great way to diversity your portfolio.

If you are wondering how the changing economy affects you and your real estate, give me a call, I’m happy to help!

See you in the neighborhood, Kyle

Uncategorized

Realistic Pricing? At Least for a Couple Months Anyway

July 6, 2017

2017 started off great. 13 homes sold in the first quarter within 97% of the asking price. But, as in the past, sellers are starting to feel confident and as a result we are seeing “optimistic” pricing. I don’t blame sellers. I, like many realtors, am an optimist (you sort of have to be in order to survive in this career). We tell our clients “prices are rising,” or “there’s no inventory!” and the “buyers are hungry.” In fact, I took most of these statements from blog posts and articles I’ve written over the past 12 months. Some of it is definitely true. Prices are at record highs in Valmonte and elsewhere – see the chart below.

Buy buyers aren’t dumb, nor irrational. You can make the argument that as prices climb, buyers become more discretionary. When you look at homes over the 6 or 12 month median, buyers have more choices and more things to consider. Take a look at the inventory/supply chart below. It’s based on month’s supply of inventory and compared to last year, inventory is definitely rising. Turnover in Valmonte is the lowest of all the neighborhoods in PV, and the normal scarcity of homes helps push the prices up. Why the recent increase in inventory? The increase is more likely due to a seasonal increase and won’t likely be sustained. Several of the homes on the market are the result of divorce, job relocations, and retirements, as opposed to people moving out of the area because they don’t like it.

There’s some good news in the tea leaves. Price strength is supported from the bottom up. So far to date, the lowest priced home sold was $1,070,000 (3700 PV Dr North). There have been more homes sold over $2m than ever before. But the question everyone is asking, “can it keep going up?” In the chart below, the median sales price (weighted over 12 months) has plateaued in Valmonte while it has continued to rise in all of Palos Verdes Estates. Going beyond the numbers alone, the increase in PVE v Valmonte could be due to the larger homes and new construction in the areas of the city outside of Valmonte like Montemalaga and Lunada Bay. Those areas boast average lot sizes of 14,000′ allowing much larger homes to be built. In fact, in 2017, the average home sale in Montemalaga is $2.7m. However, on a price/foot basis, Valmonte actually exceeds the median price/foot for the entire city.

Median Price/Foot (12 month rolling average – click to select a specific month)

The litmus test: The fundamentals remain – buyers still want to move to nice neighborhoods like Valmonte, and sellers are reluctant to sell until they have to. This creates a supply and demand imbalance that continues to favor the seller, and it doesn’t seem to be changing too quickly.

For more about the real estate market, I encourage you to listen to the Chief Economist at the California Association of Realtors in her recent Q&A at the Teles Properties Headquarters in Beverly Hills. She had some great insights to the current market, what the future looks like, and how the market has changed in the recent cycle.

Real Estate Market, Valmonte Homes

Palos Verdes Estates: Valmonte Home Prices Set a New Record in 2016!

December 14, 2016

As we near the end of the calendar year, we can clearly see that home prices have rebounded from market lows and have exceeded previous records set during the last peak. For Palos Verdes Estates, Malaga Cove posted the highest year over year appreciation for the 4 areas (Valmonte, Malaga Cove, Monte Malaga, and Lunada Bay) with Valmonte not too far behind. Here’s how they stack up on a price per square foot basis for the last 12 months:

Malaga Cove – $921/sq foot (up 21.2%)
Valmonte – $741/sq foot (up 12.8%)
Lunada Bay – $670/sq foot (up 2.6%)
Monte Malaga – $654/sq foot (down 17.4%)

What do the numbers mean? – Each area has its unique features that make it more or less popular given the market demand. Valmonte and Lunada Bay are both seeing a huge increase in new families with young children moving in. Because the lots are typically smaller in Valmonte compared to Lunada Bay, the homes are a little smaller and people are willing to pay more per foot to be on one of the flat tree-lined streets that make Valmonte attractive. Malaga Cove on the other hand boasts panoramic ocean views from nearly every home and buyers are willing to pay a premium for views. Finally, Monte Malaga offers some of the largest homes on the hill so the price per foot tends to drop while the average priced home is typically more than Valmonte or Lunada Bay. I’ve shared a graph below showing the average sales price in each area and you can see how area differs with regard to average sales price.

Keep in mind these are all averages. Supply fluctuations as well the unique qualities of each home that is sold affects these numbers. If all the homes sold in a particular year were brand new with ocean views, I’m sure the numbers would look a lot different. This is rarely the case, so each home needs to be analyzed independently. In all, it’s been a good year for property owners in Palos Verdes Estates. Home prices are continuing to trend upward, supply is still in check, and buyers are returning to the market after the election. The challenges we face in the short term are rising interest rates and lack of supply especially with entry level homes.

If you would like a custom estimate of value for your home, please visit pvehomeprices.com and we’ll send a report out to you right away. If you would like advice about buying or selling a home in 2017, please feel free to contact Kyle directly at 310-483-3998. Happy Holidays!

Real Estate Market, Valmonte Homes

Valmonte Late Summer Market Update: Did We Just See the Peak?

August 23, 2016

4209 Via Pinzon, $1,450,000 (listed by Kyle Daniels, Ericson Beach Real Estate) www.liveinvalmonte.com

As we enjoy the remaining warm days and quiet evenings of another wonderful summer in Valmonte, it’s time to take inventory of the local real estate market and get an idea of where things are headed. To put things in perspective, we have enjoyed over 43% in average sales price appreciation over the last 4 years. These rising home prices have largely been driven by limited inventory and low interest rates, which further aided buyer demand. But as this current growth cycle matures, the $100,000 question is how long can the market continue to rise? To answer that question, I like to turn to three indicators that give us some historical perspective of what’s statistically going on with the market – month’s supply, list price to sales price ratio, and days on market.

History lesson: Market Cycles

In 2005 and early 2006, our last market peak, homes were selling on average 98% of the asking price in approximately 22 days. In fact, in the market run up from 2002 through early 2006, homes were selling in an average of 19 days over that time period. In addition, home prices appreciated 56% and inventory was much like it is today – tight supply with less than 2 month’s worth of inventory. We can look to less stringent lending standards during that time period as one reason for the shorter days on the market, but clearly demand outpaced supply and sellers were willing and able to take advantage of that imbalance. Of course, we all know what ensued -the market flattened out for a couple years before dropping nearly 30% over four years, before before seeing a recovery in mid-2012.

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But here we are today, sitting comfortably in our newly appreciated homes and feeling pretty smart about our 43% price appreciation over the last four years. During this growth cycle, homes sold on average in 64 days – three times the amount of time it took in the last bull market. Months supply is roughly the same as the 2002-06 cycle with around 2 months of inventory available.

How long will it last?

If you arelike most folks, the memories of the last market crash are hard to shake, and you’re thinking, “how much longer can prices continue to rise?” Looking at 21 years of sales data from the MLS as our guide, we’ve seen three growth cycles since 1995, each lasting about 4-5 years, followed by 2-3 years of flat growth, then 2-3 years of declining values before the next growth cycle kicks in. Getting deeper into the weeds, when we look at price/foot comparisons over the same time frame, prices grew over a 10 year cycle before declining for 6 years. This tells us that the base price tends to expand and contract over a shorter time frame while price/foot changes over longer cycles. What this means is that if you are a buyer during a down cycle, you are likely getting more home for your dollar while seeing a stronger appreciation if you can make some improvements leading into the next growth cycle. Just as in stocks, buy low and sell high, right?

Nota bene!

It is important to note, over the last 20 years, the growth cycles have been stronger and lasted longer than the contractions. And in most cases, price gains have outpaced declines by a factor of 2 to 1. But if we really step back and look at the net results, if you held a property in Valmonte since 1995, you have enjoyed an average price increase of 192% and a price per foot increase of 178%. Not too bad for living in a beautiful neighborhood with excellent weather, friendly neighbors, and great schools.

So to answer my own question, if you were to ask me to bet money on how much longer prices will rise, I will be inclined to tell you we are coming to an end of the growth cycle, and that more than likely, we’ll see a leveling out for the next couple of years before we see any downward momentum in home values. What could change my prediction? Without a mortgage debt crisis looming like we saw in 2008, the headwinds for price growth today are the potential for rising interest rates and the inability of recent college graduates to pay off student loans to free up more capital to purchase their first home. When that next reality hits is anyone’s guess, but for now I’m going to enjoy the nice weather and finish a few projects around the house before cooler weather and the holidays come back around.

See you in the neighborhood!

Real Estate Market, Valmonte Homes

Prices are up, Inventory is down, but the Summer Selling Season Gives Buyers Hope

May 24, 2016

Let’s face it, if you are a buyer looking to move to Palos Verdes Estates, and you don’t have over $2 million, it’s a tough market out there. The same goes for buyers in Manhattan Beach, Hermosa Beach, and increasingly Redondo Beach. As for the beach cities, there are at least several lower priced options including condos and town homes that will get you location, views, and that coveted beach zip code many buyers are looking for (may I recommend 446 Palos Verdes Blvd) But if you don’t want to hear your neighbor’s toilet flush or their phone ring, buyers looking to “the Hill” are facing steep competition at the lower entry points to each neighborhood.

Taken as a whole, inventory is down compared to a year ago throughout the South Bay and Palos Verdes. On the other hand prices are up over 4% in the general area and over 10% in the most popular neighborhoods. If you are shopping at the entry point to any neighborhood, the competition is stiff, especially under $1.5m. However, there is an interesting trend recently reported by CoreLogic that we are seeing – rising inventory and fewer sales in the higher price ranges. To illustrate this, look at Manhattan Beach where list prices are averaging $4.3m. Compared to a year ago, available inventory (and months supply) has nearly doubled from 61 homes to 115 homes. On the other hand, the number of closed sales remains steady around 31/month. In Valmonte, where sold homes averaged $1.67m (3 month rolling average), inventory is down over 40% from a year ago and closed sales are up on a monthly basis. Hmmnnn, are we starting to see signs of a bubble on the high end?

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2517 Via la Selva in Valmonte – ask $1,999,000, SOLD $2,067,000

Fortunately there is some hope on the horizon for those eager buyers as summer approaches. In the past Valmonte has averaged around 12-13 available homes during the summer months . This summer bump is true for the beach cities as well. But as prices climb, the buyer pool tends to shrink and homes sit on the market longer. As a result, prices drop, typically as we head into the holidays and unsold inventory sits. Is this what we have in store for our market? Only time will tell, but for now, my buyers are still looking for that perfect Valmonte home for their family and there isn’t much available for them.

101 Via Colusa – ask $1,250,000; SOLD $1,352,500!

If you are thinking of buying or selling a home, please contact Kyle Daniels, Ericson Beach Real Estate, 310.483.3998 or kyle@kyledanielsrealestate.com for a confidential consultation.

Real Estate Market, Valmonte Homes

Where did all the sellers go?

March 16, 2016

So we’re flying out of winter and into spring, and by now we should be watching home listings rise like Daffodils with thoughts of new neighbors and summer barbeques lifting our spirits. The part about Daffodils and BBQ’s is on target, but the part about homes for sale – nope. Currently there are only 5 homes on the market in Valmonte – Lunada Bay, Hollywood Riviera, and other parts of the hill aren’t much different. 2 of the current homes are perched above the canyon on Via Alondra and aren’t the most kid friendly homes, and the other 3 require a small mountain of cash to call your own – although they are quite nice homes worth every penny. So why isn’t anyone else selling?

3716 Via la Selva recently listed for $2.45m – former residence of Joey Buss of Lakers ownership fame (maybe there were too many Lakers fans in the neighborhood asking him why the team is in the tank?)

If you’ve been following along with my posts, 2015 was a great year, and I would normally expect that to trigger new sellers looking to take advantage of the higher prices. For the last 2 years inventory of homes for sale has been hovering around 8-13 homes with a high of 18 in the fall of 2014. But inventory has been in a steady decline, both here in Palos Verdes Estates and the surrounding communities since September of 2015. That’s not slowing buyer demand. Interest rates are at or below 4%, and people are out looking for homes.

Why isn’t anyone selling? That answer to that question is like the snake eating it’s tail. Without new inventory, would be sellers don’t have a place to go. In turn, the homes that are for sale are being being driven up to valuations that make it hard for people to make the jump to a new home. As a result we’re seeing homeowners staying put, choosing to remodel and upgrade their existing homes instead of moving. I don’t blame anyone for staying. I’m not planning on leaving anytime soon – we love it here and the kids are not too far off from being immersed in school. For those that are considering downsizing, the process is a bit easier, but lower priced homes have even more competition and in most cases are seeing multiple offer situations.

Now maybe this is all for naught and there are actually lots of sellers in the shadows waiting until summer to sell? I personally know of a couple people holding off until school’s out, but that won’t make up for all the demand. As for the rest of our Valmonte neighbors, please let me know if you are thinking of selling – I have several families that want in on our great little neighborhood.

See you in the neighborhood – KD

3411 la Selva Place – my personal favorite. Asking $2.75m for a 17,000 foot double lot with pool, guest house, and lots of charm – but you need to bring your hammer for this one – it needs some work.

Real Estate Market, Valmonte Homes

Mid February Valmonte update: New listing, closed sale, accepted offer, and price drops

February 24, 2016

4208 Via Valmonte – Asking $1,140,000

We’re over halfway through February and Valmonte is slowly waking from a winter slumber. This past week one new listing came on the market – 4208 Via Valmonte, a 3 bedroom, 2 bath, in 1625 square feet and priced at $1,140,000 ($702/foot). This is a well kept house with pleasant low maintenance landscaping. The house sits back from the street and once inside offers a welcoming floorplan. The house is mostly original so a new buyer would likely want to spend some money on updates, but the house is move-in ready as it stands. I expect this to sell quickly and at or over the asking price.

Price drops – Of the remaining 5 homes still on the market (and 2 accepting back-up offers), 2 recently saw price drops. 4240 Via Alondra dropped $100k to $1.399m. This is a nice home with beautiful canyon views and 2,700 square feet. 4256 Via Alondra, an updated home a few doors away dropped to $1,715,000. This too features a peaceful setting on the canyon and is updated throughout. Why aren’t these selling? Homes on Via Alondra, particularly on the canyon side of the street, don’t have backyards. With the large number of families looking to move to Valmonte, these homes are at a serious disadvantage. However, the views and price per foot are attractive and I’m sure a buyer will eventually step forward.

Accepted offer – after less than 2 weeks on the market 2544 Via Anita has an accepted offer. It’s still contingent on inspections, but it shows a nicely updated home with over 2,700′ with 4 bedrooms on a nice lot has wide appeal at $1.795m. Assuming this closes at or near asking, this represents a nice ROI since this house last sold in November 2013 for $1.399. After selling costs, that’s over a $200k return for a little less than 2 1/2 years. Not bad!

300 Via Alcance – Sold $1,609,000

What sold? 300 Via Alcance, after 208 days on the market, finally has a new family. Originally sold in September of 2014 for $1.1m, the home was thoroughly updated, the master bedroom enlarged, and came back on the market at $1.899m in June 2015. While the updates were high end, the $1.899m for 2300′ square feet was pushing the upper limits for a 3 bedroom house in Valmonte on an average sized lot. After lots of patience and several significant price drops, it finally sold for $1.609m last week.

What’s Next? We should see another cluster of Via la Selva homes close in the next month or so with 3025 PV Drive North and 2544 Via Anita closing soon after. This should give us enough data to get an idea of how prices are looking, but so far 2016 is looking to be another good year for Valmonte real estate. Now if we can just get a few more on the market . . . call me!

Just for fun – It’s interesting to note the unusual groupings of homes on the market. Currently, there are 3 homes on Via Anita, 2 on Via Alondra, and 1 on Via Valmonte. (Via la Selva is so long, there always seems to be a couple there). While mostly circumstantial, I have noticed a common occurrence that homes sell in bunches on the same street in a short period of time. In late 2014, 6 came on the market on Via Solano. In 2015, there was only one new listing. I wonder what street will be the busy one this year?

Real Estate Market, Valmonte Homes

SOLD: Second all-time highest sales price in Valmonte

February 11, 2016

The pool at 2921 Via la Selva

I’m not sure if it’s just the weather, but things have been heating up in the Valmonte real estate market, and elsewhere for that matter. In the last week, we have seen several good signs that will hopefully continue into the spring. First, 2921 Via la Selva sold for $3,050,000 ($909/foot down from from $3,295,000 on February 9th). This was the second highest sales price in Valmonte, ever. The home is a Santa Barbara style Spanish ranch home on one level on nearly a half-acre. The home was built in 2007 and features 4 bedrooms, 6 baths with entertaining space that opens to a stone patio and outdoor dining area, guest house, pool (you actually walk on stepping stones across the pool to get to the guest house and rest of the yard), and a rare 3 car garage. All of this backs up to the Valmonte trail and is on one of the best streets in all of Palos Verdes Estates. Pretty much a one of a kind Valmonte dream house.

2544 Via Anita – 4 bedrooms/3 baths – $1,795,000

As for the rest of the recent activity, across the street from the dream house, 2928 Via la Selva, priced at $2,899,000 ($610/foot) is in escrow, and further east near the school, 3728 Via la Selva closed at $1,403,000 ($737/foot) on February 1. If you are a buyer, inventory is still lean with only 6 homes on the market (3108 Via la Selva fell out of escrow and is back on), and 2544 Via Anita is the only new home to see. As for 2544 Via Anita, it’s a nicely finished two story home with the living space and two bedrooms upstairs, with two more bedrooms and a family room downstairs that opens to a deck and nice yard. It’s priced slightly below last year’s average price/foot at $1.795m ($650/foot) which is fair considering the recent updates and spacious living spaces.

I anticipate an improvement in inventory as we move closer to Spring, but for now, it’s slim pickin’s for the buyers out there and prime time to be a seller in Valmonte.

The tree lined streets of the grove in Valmonte – a nice place to be when the sun is shining and the wind isn’t blowing!

Real Estate Market, Valmonte Homes

Say what? This one sold grossly under market!

February 4, 2016

4033 Via Valmonte sold for $1.12m in January

You’ve heard me say it before, 2015 was a great year in real estate in Valmonte. Prices were up and the number of sales was the best in nearly 20 years. So with all this great news, how did a move-in ready home with views sell for $1850/foot under the average price? The story gets even more interesting when I add the fact that when I contacted the agent on behalf of my client, he informed me there were multiple offers within the first two weeks of being on the market. Yes it was over the holidays, but how do you sell for $1.12m a 2,367 square foot 4 bedroom, 3 bath home with mountain views and a nicely landscaped backyard, when a similar sized, albeit more updated, home sold less than 3 weeks prior for $1.625m? This just smells fishy. I know I sound like I’m whining, but I have a point. The agent was not a local agent, and the sales price reflects this. I hate to see good people get ripped off. This house should have sold over asking and a lot closer to $1.4 million. So if you are thinking of selling, please, I beg you, interview a local expert before you fall victim to an agent that doesn’t have his/her client’s best interests in mind. Okay, I’m off my soapbox.