Market climate – Valmonte
- There are currently 16 homes on the market, approximately double the amount year-over-year, and near the highest level in the current market cycle
- The absorption rate is 4.7 months, and nearing the peak of 6.4 months supply in October 2014
- Prices on a square foot basis are near record highs ($734/ft)
- Days on Market for the last quarter are at record lows (41 days)
- On an annual basis, median sales prices have leveled off in Valmonte ($1.5m)
- Homes in Valmonte are selling generally within 1% of the list price
Lot’s of inventory, price drops on the way?
After 5 years of appreciation, the market is showing signs of leveling as the market transitions from a seller’s market to a buyer’s market. The increasing supply is indicative of a “me too” selling climate where sellers are trying to take advantage of higher prices while the good times are around. If the inventory levels hold, I expect prices to decline slightly into the Fall and Winter months when buyer activity tends to dip. On the buyer front, interest rates remain stable around 4%, but the consensus is that rates will rise slightly over the next 6-18 months.
How does Valmonte compare to the rest of PVE?
Valmonte is a micro market compared to the larger Palos Verdes Estates market and for the most part, the trends lines parallel one another across the board. The exception is prices on a per foot basis tend to be higher in Valmonte than that of the entire city, due mostly to the smaller homes and generally tighter supply.
As we near the end of the calendar year, we can clearly see that home prices have rebounded from market lows and have exceeded previous records set during the last peak. For Palos Verdes Estates, Malaga Cove posted the highest year over year appreciation for the 4 areas (Valmonte, Malaga Cove, Monte Malaga, and Lunada Bay) with Valmonte not too far behind. Here’s how they stack up on a price per square foot basis for the last 12 months:
- Malaga Cove – $921/sq foot (up 21.2%)
- Valmonte – $741/sq foot (up 12.8%)
- Lunada Bay – $670/sq foot (up 2.6%)
- Monte Malaga – $654/sq foot (down 17.4%)
What do the numbers mean? – Each area has its unique features that make it more or less popular given the market demand. Valmonte and Lunada Bay are both seeing a huge increase in new families with young children moving in. Because the lots are typically smaller in Valmonte compared to Lunada Bay, the homes are a little smaller and people are willing to pay more per foot to be on one of the flat tree-lined streets that make Valmonte attractive. Malaga Cove on the other hand boasts panoramic ocean views from nearly every home and buyers are willing to pay a premium for views. Finally, Monte Malaga offers some of the largest homes on the hill so the price per foot tends to drop while the average priced home is typically more than Valmonte or Lunada Bay. I’ve shared a graph below showing the average sales price in each area and you can see how area differs with regard to average sales price.
Keep in mind these are all averages. Supply fluctuations as well the unique qualities of each home that is sold affects these numbers. If all the homes sold in a particular year were brand new with ocean views, I’m sure the numbers would look a lot different. This is rarely the case, so each home needs to be analyzed independently. In all, it’s been a good year for property owners in Palos Verdes Estates. Home prices are continuing to trend upward, supply is still in check, and buyers are returning to the market after the election. The challenges we face in the short term are rising interest rates and lack of supply especially with entry level homes.
If you would like a custom estimate of value for your home, please visit pvehomeprices.com and we’ll send a report out to you right away. If you would like advice about buying or selling a home in 2017, please feel free to contact Kyle directly at 310-483-3998. Happy Holidays!