2016

Where did all the sellers go?

March 16, 2016

So we’re flying out of winter and into spring, and by now we should be watching home listings rise like Daffodils with thoughts of new neighbors and summer barbeques lifting our spirits. The part about Daffodils and BBQ’s is on target, but the part about homes for sale – nope. Currently there are only 5 homes on the market in Valmonte – Lunada Bay, Hollywood Riviera, and other parts of the hill aren’t much different. 2 of the current homes are perched above the canyon on Via Alondra and aren’t the most kid friendly homes, and the other 3 require a small mountain of cash to call your own – although they are quite nice homes worth every penny. So why isn’t anyone else selling?

3716 Via la Selva recently listed for $2.45m – former residence of Joey Buss of Lakers ownership fame (maybe there were too many Lakers fans in the neighborhood asking him why the team is in the tank?)

If you’ve been following along with my posts, 2015 was a great year, and I would normally expect that to trigger new sellers looking to take advantage of the higher prices. For the last 2 years inventory of homes for sale has been hovering around 8-13 homes with a high of 18 in the fall of 2014. But inventory has been in a steady decline, both here in Palos Verdes Estates and the surrounding communities since September of 2015. That’s not slowing buyer demand. Interest rates are at or below 4%, and people are out looking for homes.

Why isn’t anyone selling? That answer to that question is like the snake eating it’s tail. Without new inventory, would be sellers don’t have a place to go. In turn, the homes that are for sale are being being driven up to valuations that make it hard for people to make the jump to a new home. As a result we’re seeing homeowners staying put, choosing to remodel and upgrade their existing homes instead of moving. I don’t blame anyone for staying. I’m not planning on leaving anytime soon – we love it here and the kids are not too far off from being immersed in school. For those that are considering downsizing, the process is a bit easier, but lower priced homes have even more competition and in most cases are seeing multiple offer situations.

Now maybe this is all for naught and there are actually lots of sellers in the shadows waiting until summer to sell? I personally know of a couple people holding off until school’s out, but that won’t make up for all the demand. As for the rest of our Valmonte neighbors, please let me know if you are thinking of selling – I have several families that want in on our great little neighborhood.

See you in the neighborhood – KD

3411 la Selva Place – my personal favorite. Asking $2.75m for a 17,000 foot double lot with pool, guest house, and lots of charm – but you need to bring your hammer for this one – it needs some work.

Real Estate Market, Valmonte Homes

The best Valmonte buys of 2015

January 11, 2016

2015 went down as one of the better seller’s markets in the last 20 years, and despite conditions being more favorable to sellers, there were still some great buys for some savvy home buyers this year. Let’s take a look at 3 homes that represent the best buys of the year. To establish a baseline, here are some of the averages for Valmonte homes sold in 2015.

Average Sales Price: $1,536,483
Average Price/Foot: $657/foot
Average square footage/lot size: 2,374’/ 9,218′
Homes sold: 56 in 2015

3353 Via La Selva – $1,300,000 This one was a personal favorite. In general, this home is pretty average, 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, 1900 square feet on over a 10,000′ lot. But what makes this one special is the A plus location on one of the best streets in Valmonte, the large backyard with a pool and entertaining space, trail access out the back gate, and the utility line easement. In other words, this large lot has location and privacy and a house with options. The house itself needs some updating, and the new owners look like they are busy making interior improvements, but overall, this house sold at a great price compared to comps. If it were on the market it today, $1,450,000 would be a reasonable place to start, and I have no doubt that it would see lots of activity.

4112 Via Larga Vista – $1,495,000 Purchased by SUMTER PROPERTIES LLC for $1.495m in October, this was a great buy when you consider price per square foot. Anyone that’s tried to remodel a house in PV Estates knows that it’s no easy feat, having to get Art Jury, Neighborhood, and Planning approval. Since the sale closed escrow, there’s lots of work going on over there. Given that it was purchased and set up as an LLC, my guess is we’ll see this on the market again later in 2016, Probably at a price closer to $2 million, and maybe more.

4309 Via Valmonte – $799,000 This house certainly had limited appeal based on it’s size and condition, but anytime you can pay $799,000 for a house in Palos Verdes Estates, it’s pretty hard to lose. This little steal has only 2 bedrooms and 1 bath in just under 1,200, and the lot is just a bit over 7,000, but it’s a great entry point into Valmonte, and with a little work, this one is sure to build equity in no time. With a little love, this can easily be a $1,000,000 plus home.

What’s on the horizon? 2016 should be interesting. So far inventory is starting off pretty low; currently there are only 6 homes on the market compared to 13 last January. The homes on the market are priced between $1.495 and $2.999m, which certainly doesn’t appeal to all buyers. As far as the economy goes, interest rates and how home buyers react will be the wildcard that we’ll need keep an eye on. And supply will continue to be the other significant factor to consider. Prices can be the great motivator, and as prices continue to rise, typically more folks will consider selling in 2016. My prediction is that if the greater US economy can continue to hold steady, we will continue to see modest gains in home values, probably in the 5% range. However, if supply remains tight, then we may see values grow in the 7-10% range with multiple offer and overbids being more of the norm until supply balances with demand.

Cheers to a prosperous 2016!

Where did all the sellers go?

The best Valmonte buys of 2015

About Kyle Daniels

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