Valmonte Homes

Prices are up, Inventory is down, but the Summer Selling Season Gives Buyers Hope

May 24, 2016

Let’s face it, if you are a buyer looking to move to Palos Verdes Estates, and you don’t have over $2 million, it’s a tough market out there. The same goes for buyers in Manhattan Beach, Hermosa Beach, and increasingly Redondo Beach. As for the beach cities, there are at least several lower priced options including condos and town homes that will get you location, views, and that coveted beach zip code many buyers are looking for (may I recommend 446 Palos Verdes Blvd) But if you don’t want to hear your neighbor’s toilet flush or their phone ring, buyers looking to “the Hill” are facing steep competition at the lower entry points to each neighborhood.

Taken as a whole, inventory is down compared to a year ago throughout the South Bay and Palos Verdes. On the other hand prices are up over 4% in the general area and over 10% in the most popular neighborhoods. If you are shopping at the entry point to any neighborhood, the competition is stiff, especially under $1.5m. However, there is an interesting trend recently reported by CoreLogic that we are seeing – rising inventory and fewer sales in the higher price ranges. To illustrate this, look at Manhattan Beach where list prices are averaging $4.3m. Compared to a year ago, available inventory (and months supply) has nearly doubled from 61 homes to 115 homes. On the other hand, the number of closed sales remains steady around 31/month. In Valmonte, where sold homes averaged $1.67m (3 month rolling average), inventory is down over 40% from a year ago and closed sales are up on a monthly basis. Hmmnnn, are we starting to see signs of a bubble on the high end?

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2517 Via la Selva in Valmonte – ask $1,999,000, SOLD $2,067,000

Fortunately there is some hope on the horizon for those eager buyers as summer approaches. In the past Valmonte has averaged around 12-13 available homes during the summer months . This summer bump is true for the beach cities as well. But as prices climb, the buyer pool tends to shrink and homes sit on the market longer. As a result, prices drop, typically as we head into the holidays and unsold inventory sits. Is this what we have in store for our market? Only time will tell, but for now, my buyers are still looking for that perfect Valmonte home for their family and there isn’t much available for them.

101 Via Colusa – ask $1,250,000; SOLD $1,352,500!

If you are thinking of buying or selling a home, please contact Kyle Daniels, Ericson Beach Real Estate, 310.483.3998 or kyle@kyledanielsrealestate.com for a confidential consultation.

Real Estate Market, Valmonte Homes

Did the top end of the market peak?

April 1, 2016

Warning, if you don’t like charts and numbers, you might not like this post. . . . my apologies. As a trained accountant, I like numbers. I like charts even more. Recently, I’ve been reading about and starting to notice a little change in the real estate market. While the entry level price point in most neighborhoods is still white-hot with busy open houses and multiple bids, the top end of the market is not nearly as crazy. In fact, there are signs that prices may have hit their peak.

With all the data available, how can we measure craziness? I like to look at absorption rate, measured as months supply, to gauge the temperature of the market. In the chart below, I assumed $2 million and above represents the top of the market. Now this may be more mid-market in Manhattan Beach, but in Palos Verdes Estates, Redondo Beach, and Hermosa Beach, this is somewhat of a dividing line in the single-family real estate market. The chart below shows that compared to a year earlier, the months supply has increased by at least 30%. In the 4 cities in the chart, this is a direct result of inventories in the $2m plus price range nearly doubling, while the number of closed sales remains mostly flat.

Using the same examples as above, but looking at the price range of $1.5-1.999 million, it’s a different story. Month’s supply in this price range has dropped, year-over-year, to 2 months supply or less. Certainly, rising prices hasn’t helped categorically, but I think the reality of there being more buyers than supply of homes is a better explanation for the drop. The other thing to consider is that in this price range, many homeowners are more likely to be longer term owners and less likely to be looking to move, therefore supply is restricted in this category.

The same goes for the $1.2m to $1.499m price range. Like its cousin above, month’s supply hasn’t changed much on a year-over-year basis. Again, this suggests there are far more buyers in this price category relative to the current supply. I suspect that the multiple bids and heavy competition will continue in this price range until there is a significant change in the market or interest rates jump significantly.

There are some obvious things to point out in all of the charts above. First, there is market seasonality. As we are currently starting to see, there is typically more inventory in the spring and summer months compared to winter and fall, usually dropping to a low around the holidays. I expect that trend to continue this spring and summer; however, it will be interesting to see what happens. For now, interest rates are low so that should continue to motivate active buyers. But what I am really curious to see is if the high end market plateaus, and if it will it spread to the lower price categories? It’s anyone’s guess, and at some point, it’s going to happen. When is the big question. . . .

Real Estate Market, Valmonte Homes

Where did all the sellers go?

March 16, 2016

So we’re flying out of winter and into spring, and by now we should be watching home listings rise like Daffodils with thoughts of new neighbors and summer barbeques lifting our spirits. The part about Daffodils and BBQ’s is on target, but the part about homes for sale – nope. Currently there are only 5 homes on the market in Valmonte – Lunada Bay, Hollywood Riviera, and other parts of the hill aren’t much different. 2 of the current homes are perched above the canyon on Via Alondra and aren’t the most kid friendly homes, and the other 3 require a small mountain of cash to call your own – although they are quite nice homes worth every penny. So why isn’t anyone else selling?

3716 Via la Selva recently listed for $2.45m – former residence of Joey Buss of Lakers ownership fame (maybe there were too many Lakers fans in the neighborhood asking him why the team is in the tank?)

If you’ve been following along with my posts, 2015 was a great year, and I would normally expect that to trigger new sellers looking to take advantage of the higher prices. For the last 2 years inventory of homes for sale has been hovering around 8-13 homes with a high of 18 in the fall of 2014. But inventory has been in a steady decline, both here in Palos Verdes Estates and the surrounding communities since September of 2015. That’s not slowing buyer demand. Interest rates are at or below 4%, and people are out looking for homes.

Why isn’t anyone selling? That answer to that question is like the snake eating it’s tail. Without new inventory, would be sellers don’t have a place to go. In turn, the homes that are for sale are being being driven up to valuations that make it hard for people to make the jump to a new home. As a result we’re seeing homeowners staying put, choosing to remodel and upgrade their existing homes instead of moving. I don’t blame anyone for staying. I’m not planning on leaving anytime soon – we love it here and the kids are not too far off from being immersed in school. For those that are considering downsizing, the process is a bit easier, but lower priced homes have even more competition and in most cases are seeing multiple offer situations.

Now maybe this is all for naught and there are actually lots of sellers in the shadows waiting until summer to sell? I personally know of a couple people holding off until school’s out, but that won’t make up for all the demand. As for the rest of our Valmonte neighbors, please let me know if you are thinking of selling – I have several families that want in on our great little neighborhood.

See you in the neighborhood – KD

3411 la Selva Place – my personal favorite. Asking $2.75m for a 17,000 foot double lot with pool, guest house, and lots of charm – but you need to bring your hammer for this one – it needs some work.

Real Estate Market, Valmonte Homes

Mid February Valmonte update: New listing, closed sale, accepted offer, and price drops

February 24, 2016

4208 Via Valmonte – Asking $1,140,000

We’re over halfway through February and Valmonte is slowly waking from a winter slumber. This past week one new listing came on the market – 4208 Via Valmonte, a 3 bedroom, 2 bath, in 1625 square feet and priced at $1,140,000 ($702/foot). This is a well kept house with pleasant low maintenance landscaping. The house sits back from the street and once inside offers a welcoming floorplan. The house is mostly original so a new buyer would likely want to spend some money on updates, but the house is move-in ready as it stands. I expect this to sell quickly and at or over the asking price.

Price drops – Of the remaining 5 homes still on the market (and 2 accepting back-up offers), 2 recently saw price drops. 4240 Via Alondra dropped $100k to $1.399m. This is a nice home with beautiful canyon views and 2,700 square feet. 4256 Via Alondra, an updated home a few doors away dropped to $1,715,000. This too features a peaceful setting on the canyon and is updated throughout. Why aren’t these selling? Homes on Via Alondra, particularly on the canyon side of the street, don’t have backyards. With the large number of families looking to move to Valmonte, these homes are at a serious disadvantage. However, the views and price per foot are attractive and I’m sure a buyer will eventually step forward.

Accepted offer – after less than 2 weeks on the market 2544 Via Anita has an accepted offer. It’s still contingent on inspections, but it shows a nicely updated home with over 2,700′ with 4 bedrooms on a nice lot has wide appeal at $1.795m. Assuming this closes at or near asking, this represents a nice ROI since this house last sold in November 2013 for $1.399. After selling costs, that’s over a $200k return for a little less than 2 1/2 years. Not bad!

300 Via Alcance – Sold $1,609,000

What sold? 300 Via Alcance, after 208 days on the market, finally has a new family. Originally sold in September of 2014 for $1.1m, the home was thoroughly updated, the master bedroom enlarged, and came back on the market at $1.899m in June 2015. While the updates were high end, the $1.899m for 2300′ square feet was pushing the upper limits for a 3 bedroom house in Valmonte on an average sized lot. After lots of patience and several significant price drops, it finally sold for $1.609m last week.

What’s Next? We should see another cluster of Via la Selva homes close in the next month or so with 3025 PV Drive North and 2544 Via Anita closing soon after. This should give us enough data to get an idea of how prices are looking, but so far 2016 is looking to be another good year for Valmonte real estate. Now if we can just get a few more on the market . . . call me!

Just for fun – It’s interesting to note the unusual groupings of homes on the market. Currently, there are 3 homes on Via Anita, 2 on Via Alondra, and 1 on Via Valmonte. (Via la Selva is so long, there always seems to be a couple there). While mostly circumstantial, I have noticed a common occurrence that homes sell in bunches on the same street in a short period of time. In late 2014, 6 came on the market on Via Solano. In 2015, there was only one new listing. I wonder what street will be the busy one this year?

Real Estate Market, Valmonte Homes

SOLD: Second all-time highest sales price in Valmonte

February 11, 2016

The pool at 2921 Via la Selva

I’m not sure if it’s just the weather, but things have been heating up in the Valmonte real estate market, and elsewhere for that matter. In the last week, we have seen several good signs that will hopefully continue into the spring. First, 2921 Via la Selva sold for $3,050,000 ($909/foot down from from $3,295,000 on February 9th). This was the second highest sales price in Valmonte, ever. The home is a Santa Barbara style Spanish ranch home on one level on nearly a half-acre. The home was built in 2007 and features 4 bedrooms, 6 baths with entertaining space that opens to a stone patio and outdoor dining area, guest house, pool (you actually walk on stepping stones across the pool to get to the guest house and rest of the yard), and a rare 3 car garage. All of this backs up to the Valmonte trail and is on one of the best streets in all of Palos Verdes Estates. Pretty much a one of a kind Valmonte dream house.

2544 Via Anita – 4 bedrooms/3 baths – $1,795,000

As for the rest of the recent activity, across the street from the dream house, 2928 Via la Selva, priced at $2,899,000 ($610/foot) is in escrow, and further east near the school, 3728 Via la Selva closed at $1,403,000 ($737/foot) on February 1. If you are a buyer, inventory is still lean with only 6 homes on the market (3108 Via la Selva fell out of escrow and is back on), and 2544 Via Anita is the only new home to see. As for 2544 Via Anita, it’s a nicely finished two story home with the living space and two bedrooms upstairs, with two more bedrooms and a family room downstairs that opens to a deck and nice yard. It’s priced slightly below last year’s average price/foot at $1.795m ($650/foot) which is fair considering the recent updates and spacious living spaces.

I anticipate an improvement in inventory as we move closer to Spring, but for now, it’s slim pickin’s for the buyers out there and prime time to be a seller in Valmonte.

The tree lined streets of the grove in Valmonte – a nice place to be when the sun is shining and the wind isn’t blowing!

Real Estate Market, Valmonte Homes

Say what? This one sold grossly under market!

February 4, 2016

4033 Via Valmonte sold for $1.12m in January

You’ve heard me say it before, 2015 was a great year in real estate in Valmonte. Prices were up and the number of sales was the best in nearly 20 years. So with all this great news, how did a move-in ready home with views sell for $1850/foot under the average price? The story gets even more interesting when I add the fact that when I contacted the agent on behalf of my client, he informed me there were multiple offers within the first two weeks of being on the market. Yes it was over the holidays, but how do you sell for $1.12m a 2,367 square foot 4 bedroom, 3 bath home with mountain views and a nicely landscaped backyard, when a similar sized, albeit more updated, home sold less than 3 weeks prior for $1.625m? This just smells fishy. I know I sound like I’m whining, but I have a point. The agent was not a local agent, and the sales price reflects this. I hate to see good people get ripped off. This house should have sold over asking and a lot closer to $1.4 million. So if you are thinking of selling, please, I beg you, interview a local expert before you fall victim to an agent that doesn’t have his/her client’s best interests in mind. Okay, I’m off my soapbox.

View from the second floor balcony looking towards the Hollywood Hills

Real Estate Market, Valmonte Homes

The best Valmonte buys of 2015

January 11, 2016

2015 went down as one of the better seller’s markets in the last 20 years, and despite conditions being more favorable to sellers, there were still some great buys for some savvy home buyers this year. Let’s take a look at 3 homes that represent the best buys of the year. To establish a baseline, here are some of the averages for Valmonte homes sold in 2015.

Average Sales Price: $1,536,483
Average Price/Foot: $657/foot
Average square footage/lot size: 2,374’/ 9,218′
Homes sold: 56 in 2015

3353 Via La Selva – $1,300,000 This one was a personal favorite. In general, this home is pretty average, 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, 1900 square feet on over a 10,000′ lot. But what makes this one special is the A plus location on one of the best streets in Valmonte, the large backyard with a pool and entertaining space, trail access out the back gate, and the utility line easement. In other words, this large lot has location and privacy and a house with options. The house itself needs some updating, and the new owners look like they are busy making interior improvements, but overall, this house sold at a great price compared to comps. If it were on the market it today, $1,450,000 would be a reasonable place to start, and I have no doubt that it would see lots of activity.

4112 Via Larga Vista – $1,495,000 Purchased by SUMTER PROPERTIES LLC for $1.495m in October, this was a great buy when you consider price per square foot. Anyone that’s tried to remodel a house in PV Estates knows that it’s no easy feat, having to get Art Jury, Neighborhood, and Planning approval. Since the sale closed escrow, there’s lots of work going on over there. Given that it was purchased and set up as an LLC, my guess is we’ll see this on the market again later in 2016, Probably at a price closer to $2 million, and maybe more.

4309 Via Valmonte – $799,000 This house certainly had limited appeal based on it’s size and condition, but anytime you can pay $799,000 for a house in Palos Verdes Estates, it’s pretty hard to lose. This little steal has only 2 bedrooms and 1 bath in just under 1,200, and the lot is just a bit over 7,000, but it’s a great entry point into Valmonte, and with a little work, this one is sure to build equity in no time. With a little love, this can easily be a $1,000,000 plus home.

What’s on the horizon? 2016 should be interesting. So far inventory is starting off pretty low; currently there are only 6 homes on the market compared to 13 last January. The homes on the market are priced between $1.495 and $2.999m, which certainly doesn’t appeal to all buyers. As far as the economy goes, interest rates and how home buyers react will be the wildcard that we’ll need keep an eye on. And supply will continue to be the other significant factor to consider. Prices can be the great motivator, and as prices continue to rise, typically more folks will consider selling in 2016. My prediction is that if the greater US economy can continue to hold steady, we will continue to see modest gains in home values, probably in the 5% range. However, if supply remains tight, then we may see values grow in the 7-10% range with multiple offer and overbids being more of the norm until supply balances with demand.

Cheers to a prosperous 2016!

Valmonte Homes

3rd Quarter Valmonte Real Estate Market Report: Spoiler Alert: Prices Are Reaching New Highs!

October 16, 2015

Is it really fall? It’s hard to believe amidst 85 degree weather that we’re getting ready for the days to slow down, stocking up on candy for the trick-or-treaters, and thinking about the coming holidays. But like the weather, the real estate values in Valmonte are headed towards all-time highs. The average sales price through September 30th is a record $1.546m – up over 14% from 2014. On top of that, there have already been 45 sales through September 30th this year, compared to 34 homes sold in all of 2014. Historically speaking, on a price/foot basic, prices have rallied 28% from market lows set in 2012 ($509/foot); however, the average price/foot is off 11% from market highs set in 2005 ($729/foot) and 2006 ($728/foot).

Ericson Beach Real Estate Listing – 3025 Palos Verdes Drive North

How long does it take for a house to sell? Average days on market (DOM) for sold homes is trending downward to 42 days for listings sold in the last three months. This is down from an average of 102 DOM in January. This decrease in DOM can be attributed to seasonal averages. However, compared to 2014, the DOM has actually increased. The longer days on market can be attributed to higher overall prices for the area as well as more available inventory. Closing prices compared to asking price have returned to 98% of asking, an indicator that on average, houses are being marketed at fair prices. Year over year this number has improved from 94%.

What’s ahead? Locally, demand remains steady, and as high prices in the South Bay beach cities continue to price out buyers, Palos Verdes Estates and surrounding areas can expect to see continued buyer interest. What are the potential challenges? Price growth in the short term may face headwinds with rising mortgage interest rates and a limited number of qualified buyers as prices continue to climb while wages and job growth wane. The result – we’ll likely see a leveling off in prices until more qualified buyers enter the market.

Valmonte Market Statistics

	# of Homes	Price Range	Ave $/foot	Average price
Active listings	10	$1.338m – $2.295m	$770/foot	$1,714,200
In Escrow	3	$1.475m – $1.699m	$620/foot	$1,574,333
Sold	45	$799k – $2.625m	$656/foot	$1,546,067
2014 Sales	34	$865k-$2.299m	$656/foot	$1,354,569

Valmonte Homes

Valmonte Remains a HOT Market

April 2, 2014

Things aren’t showing any signs of slowing down here in the Valmonte real estate market. In just the last few weeks we’ve seen most new listings go into escrow with multiple offers. The sweet spot seems to be move-in ready homes under $1.6 million. Houses in need of significant repairs or updates seem to be lingering around longer until there is a notable price drop. In the last week we saw 3908 Via Picaposte show up with a for sale sign in front and it was quickly in escrow at a price indicated as “over asking” by listing agent Ginni Lee of RE/MAX. Meanwhile, 4109 Via Picaposte was under contract again after a $100k price drop. Considering it closed in January 2013 at $1,060k, a new price of $1.299m isn’t a bad return for a hold and flip. Lastly a nicely upgraded family home, 4304 Via Nivel, had multiple offers and is reportedly on its way to closing over asking. So far, our micro market is on pace with the general market in Southern California, albeit at a higher priced entry point to move in.

2014 So Far Since the new year, 5 homes have closed at prices between $1.296m and $2.15m at a price per square foot of $547. 2 of those sold homes have closed over the asking suggesting that competition for homes in Valmonte is tough. Currently there are 6 homes available in Valmonte priced from $1.13m on the low end to $2.48m on the high end going into the selling season. What’s on the horizon? While time will certainly tell, for now, if you are a buyer, I would find a solid rate with a good mortgage banker and be ready to write a strong offer when your dream house is on the market. If you are considering selling? Well, of course, I would suggest you call me to get your home sold while the market is hot!

For more tips on buying or selling a home, please go to my website at www.kyledanielsrealestate.com or feel free to email directly at surfrealtor@gmail.com.

Valmonte Homes

New Listing: 3944 Via Solano – CANCELED

February 10, 2013

If you love Valmonte but haven’t found your chance to buy in, here’s a good opportunity. Listed for $889,000, you can have a 3 bedroom, 3 bath, 1600′ foot home on a 8,000′ lot next to the access trail with a peak of the ocean and city lights. Based on the lack of inventory on the market, I don’t see this one sticking around for long. It needs some elbow grease but with a decent sized yard and room to add on (this is key when looking in Valmonte due to the lot usage rules), you can call this great neighborhood home for a decent price. It’s open this Sunday so I’m putting this open house on my to-do list.

UPDATE: So I stopped by the open house today and it was going off! There were no less than 5 families at a time walking through the house and there probably would have been more if parking wasn’t at a premium. Nelu Ardeljan from Riviera Realtors informed me that prior to the open house, he had 3 offers, 2 over asking. I guess when you’re the only active listing under $2 million in Valmonte you’re going to get star treatment. Considering this one likely needs a new roof and some cleaning up, it looks like we have a seller’s market here in Valmonte. Let me know if you have one to sell . . . .

NEW UPDATE: LISTING CANCELED – Yeah, you’ve got me? I’m not quite sure why this one was cancelled, but maybe the owner knows something I don’t. There’s probably a good chance of that :)!

Older Posts

Newer Posts

Prices are up, Inventory is down, but the Summer Selling Season Gives Buyers Hope

Did the top end of the market peak?

Where did all the sellers go?

Mid February Valmonte update: New listing, closed sale, accepted offer, and price drops

SOLD: Second all-time highest sales price in Valmonte

Say what? This one sold grossly under market!

The best Valmonte buys of 2015

3rd Quarter Valmonte Real Estate Market Report: Spoiler Alert: Prices Are Reaching New Highs!

Valmonte Remains a HOT Market

New Listing: 3944 Via Solano – CANCELED

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